Neither heat nor drought: The climate of the US has-according to some researchers, no large influence on the future course of the Corona pandemic. As the scientists from the University of Princeton found out, is another factor much more crucial.
As the Coronavirus spread in the beginning of the year, in more and more countries in the world, was the great hope, especially on a: the summer. Scientists suggested the assumption, warmer temperatures and a humid climate, could the spread of Sars-CoV-2 curb – do it but in the case of other Corona – or flu viruses as well.
“If it is hot, the corona virus is normally weaker and the disease weakens. The summer could be our best ally“, said virologist Alexander Kekulé.
Christian Drosten said that in addition to warmer temperatures, but also to stronger UV light and dryness, “be conducive to the transmission of the virus”. Initial studies had already suggested that the climate could influence the Transmission of Sars-CoV-2. Whether these factors can, however, change the course of the pandemic in the course of this year, according to US scientists is questionable.
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Because, as a new study now shows, there are other factors that affect transmission of the virus is much stronger than the climate.
Researchers environmental scientist Rachel Baker from the American University of Princeton have investigated which factors direct the course of the epidemic and later pandemic of Sars-CoV-2 actually. They found: The most influential factor is not the climate – it is the vulnerability of the population. The scientists published their results in the journal “Science”.
Researchers simulated Virus outbreak in tropical cities
For their analysis, the researchers compared the new Sars-CoV-2-excitation with other, already well-known and more common corona virus. They provided a climate-induced, population-based model with US data to four other circulating seasonal and corona viruses.
The model simulated the spread of the virus in different cities. The researchers saw that even in tropical regions, the climate should not hinder the transmission of the virus actually continues to be a significant outbreak growth stock.
Therefore, they concluded that the course let more of the other factors influence. According to the scientists, the driving factor is the lack of immunity and, therefore, the high vulnerability of the population to become infected with the Virus and spread it.
Thus, the pandemic could Happen in warm countries, such as Brazil or Ecuador to explain. “It seems that the climate is regulated and the spread is currently,” explains study author Rachel Baker.
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Climate is a factor – but only later
The research team assumes that the climate could be a decisive factor for the spread of the Virus – then, when large parts of the population is infected already with the Virus and antibodies have been formed, or by a vaccination, immunized have been.
So Covid could be 19 to be a seasonal disease which occurs as others, by corona virus-induced common colds regularly in the Winter, predict the researchers.
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